Your model is quite interesting. I have written a draft paper, attempting to refute the Dark Forest Hypothesis from a probabilistic/logic point of view. You can find it there if you are interested : https://www.pgmusings.ca/journal/dfh
Thanks very much for this fascinating paper. Just skimming it, I can see that your analytical approach and my computational work on this problem converge in some important ways. I will look at this in more detail in the coming days.
Amazing. Thanks again. Did you also see version 1?
yes. I saw version 1 of your work and tried to play with your simulation too, but it takes too long with my computer to reach meaningful results.
I think my conclusions are correct, but it's hard to be sure. In particular it would be interesting to simulate my last 'insight' that for hunter civ to be effective they need to be numerous to have reach, which in turn increase the total number of civ and thus the chances that some civ will broadcast, thus revealing a contradiction at the hearth of the DFH.
That being said it does not work if one assumes a first mover, omnipotent hunter civ, which some will argue is a real possibility.
Your model is quite interesting. I have written a draft paper, attempting to refute the Dark Forest Hypothesis from a probabilistic/logic point of view. You can find it there if you are interested : https://www.pgmusings.ca/journal/dfh
Thanks very much for this fascinating paper. Just skimming it, I can see that your analytical approach and my computational work on this problem converge in some important ways. I will look at this in more detail in the coming days.
Amazing. Thanks again. Did you also see version 1?
yes. I saw version 1 of your work and tried to play with your simulation too, but it takes too long with my computer to reach meaningful results.
I think my conclusions are correct, but it's hard to be sure. In particular it would be interesting to simulate my last 'insight' that for hunter civ to be effective they need to be numerous to have reach, which in turn increase the total number of civ and thus the chances that some civ will broadcast, thus revealing a contradiction at the hearth of the DFH.
That being said it does not work if one assumes a first mover, omnipotent hunter civ, which some will argue is a real possibility.
Intriguing.